by Sergio Perez’s ongoing problems in Formula 1 have left his Red Bull bosses with a $20 million headache over his future.
While his lack of points success was once just an annoyance and only had an impact on the championship positions of the Mexican drivers themselves, things have become much more critical now that McLaren and Ferrari have stepped up.
Red Bull must quickly face reality: With Perez not scoring the points he hoped for, the company risks a third-place finish in the constructors’ championship this year if it doesn’t quickly restore its car’s speed.
Ferrari’s resurgent form, following back-to-back wins and two podiums in Austin and Mexico, has helped the Maranello-based outfit join McLaren in overtaking leaders Red Bull in the teams’ championship at the start of the season.
McLaren is still ahead with 566, Ferrari is 29 points behind with 537 – Red Bull is in third place with 512.
Even if Red Bull’s gap to the drivers in front of it is not mathematically insurmountable and there are still plenty of points to be won, the reality is that Red Bull is only just a match for the tailcoats of the two current leaders in Formula 1 – and therefore has little hope of turning the situation around.
The current vehicle performance is also the reason why it is assumed that there is little point in pushing for a driver change before the end of the season, because no one will be able to intervene and save his misery with any guarantee.
Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing
Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images
Finishing behind McLaren and Ferrari will have big consequences for Red Bull, aware that Formula 1’s prize money system is based solely on the constructors’ position in the championship. So a third place finish to conclude the 2024 campaign would be a major financial hit, as opposed to a win, as seemed very likely in the early stages of the campaign.
And should it get to the point of analyzing why exactly – with championship positions worth about $10 million each – we ended up with $20 million less than hoped for, you have to look at the points, which Perez has left begging for throughout the season.
This element will certainly also determine what Red Bull will do when it comes to deciding who will be Max Verstappen’s teammate next year.
At the moment everything suggests that Liam Lawson will get the nod if he keeps doing what he is doing. The New Zealander has shown strong form since returning to the F1 cockpit as a replacement for Daniel Ricciardo at the United States Grand Prix.
While he may have exceeded expectations last week in Mexico by confronting Perez – and then giving him the finger – he also showed he’s more than willing to embrace it – a trait , the Red Bulls chiefs always want to see.
But Red Bull’s driver decision is not as simple as choosing the two best possible candidates for the main team, because it also has to take into account what is going on at sister team RB. There is no point in moving all the good drivers to Red Bull to boost the constructors’ championship if RB is then left with a lineup that is falling down the rankings.
A Lawson promotion to the top team in 2025 could only really succeed if it was certain that there was another strong candidate who could be Yuki Tsunoda’s teammate.
The obvious next driver in the Red Bull rankings is Isack Hadjar, but despite his strong season in Formula 2, he would almost certainly benefit from a year of testing and development work to familiarize himself with Formula 1 before he is thrown into something It looks like an extremely tight midfield battle for RB.
Liam Lawson, RB F1 Team VCARB 01, Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing RB20
Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool
However, another interesting scenario emerged over the weekend of the Mexican Grand Prix, namely that Red Bull is trying to free Franco Colapinto from the clutches of Williams in order to replace him next year.
The Argentine has made a big impression in Formula 1 since Williams signed him for the Italian Grand Prix, racking up points and becoming a fan favorite.
Red Bull boss Christian Horner raved about his achievements. He was recently quoted as saying he was “turning heads” and told media in Mexico that he wouldn’t be doing his job if he hadn’t inquired about his availability.
Sources suggest that there is another key interest from Red Bull, namely tapping into the Latin American sponsorship market, as interest in the region increases due to Colapinto’s development.
Red Bull had good sponsorship benefits from Perez’s involvement, and Argentine sponsors already appear to have plenty of opportunity and interest, with Williams certainly benefiting from this.
While Williams has repeatedly said that it would like nothing more than to secure Colapinto a place in Formula 1 in 2025, there continue to be indications that the company wants to keep him as much as possible. That suggests any racing spot for 2025 will be on loan, rather than making the youngster a free agent.
However, from Red Bull’s perspective, this could be a deal-breaker as Marko admitted last weekend that he has no interest in sending someone out on loan just to make them better for a return to his original team.
“The problem with him is that he has a long-term contract with Williams,” the Austrian told the Kleine Zeitung. “[Taking him on loan] is not interesting for any team. “You don’t want to train a driver for another team.”
The situation seems quite uncertain at the moment and it’s no wonder that Williams team boss James Vowles, when asked what was going on with Colapinto and RB, suggested that it was quite sensitive.
Speaking to F1 TV, Vowles said: “He [Colapinto] has earned his place in the starting lineup and we want to help get him a place in that regard.
“I can’t tell you what it looks like at the moment because, firstly, it’s very sensitive and secondly, there’s really not much to talk about at the moment.”
Exactly how the driver lineups of both Red Bull teams will evolve for 2025 is still uncertain at the moment, but one thing is clear: the team will not accept a $20 million cut in prize money for the second year in a row.
